It is time for one more check-in on how traces are stacking up in targets vs. anticipated targets as tracked by MoneyPuck.
On Sunday, there have been 72 traces within the NHL that performed 150 minutes collectively at five-on-five this season. Some are nonetheless collectively, however some haven’t been collectively for some time and are now not associated.
For instance, the road of Jonathan Huberdeau, Elias Lindholm and Tyler Toffoli has one of many largest gaps between their targets and anticipated targets, however the Flames have not used these three on a line for weeks now.
Line consistency is troublesome to take care of all through the season. If a line stayed collectively all season and put in 10 minutes at five-on-five per sport, they’d be nicely over 400 minutes collectively this season. However solely three traces reached that threshold: the higher traces of the Dallas Stars and Tampa Bay Lightning and the third line of the Carolina Hurricanes. The truth is, solely 12 traces have even damaged the 300-minute mark this season.
Our “fortunate traces” are NHL threes with extra targets than the anticipated targets formulation say they need to have, whereas “annoying threes” are the traces with fewer targets than math says they need to. Many of the stats are as much as January twenty second (however some have been manually up to date since then if related) and rely closely on MoneyPuck.com, with some assist from EvolvingHockey.com.
Andrei Kuzmenko, Elias Pettersson and Ilya Mikheev, Vancouver Canadians (anticipated targets, 9.1; precise targets, 17): Apparently, this line has solely performed a handful of video games collectively since we final checked in on a line anticipated targets column on Nov. 27 — 63 minutes collectively, to be precise. However contemporary underneath the watchful eye of latest financial institution boss Rick Tocchet, the trio had been reunited on Tuesday of their debut. And guess what? They scored two targets, once more surpassing their anticipated purpose whole. It is easy to see the place the disparity comes from now, as Kuzmenko is using a 25.6% capturing share that’s tied for the league lead. We do not have a baseline for Kuzmenko’s capturing share, so perhaps it is true. Anyway, he’s obtainable in 40% of leagues and on the primary line underneath a brand new coach; he’s value including.
David Krejci, David Pastrnak and Pavel Zacha, Boston Bruins (anticipated targets, 9.2; precise targets, 17): This “luck” is definitely simply Dough being Dough. He makes anticipated purpose tallies look foolish most seasons. However I needed to focus on this line as a result of Zacha is unloved. Listed in simply 6.7% of leagues, Zacha has been regular with 1.8 fantasy factors per sport (FPPG) previously month, which is overshadowed by his 1.3 FPPG on the season resulting from a gradual begin.
Matty Beniers, Jordan Eberle and Jared McCann, Seattle Kraken (anticipated targets, 8.6; precise targets, 18): This line doesn’t exist on this type in the mean time and ought to be referred to extra because the duo of Beniers and Eberle plus a pal. And, whereas a lot of the blame for the “luck” may be pinned on McCann for being tied with Kuzmenko for the very best capturing share within the league, Beniers and Eberle are nonetheless exceeding anticipated targets with different linemates, too. Particularly with Andre Burakovsky, who’s now the third member of the road when wholesome, the trio has 10 targets however solely 5.7 anticipated targets. However I nonetheless do not suppose we must always count on Beniers to quiet down because the season winds down; he’s simply that good.
Different fortunate traces:
Tage Thompson, Jeff Skinner and Alex Tuch, Buffalo Sabres (anticipated targets, 21.5; precise targets, 28).
Nazem Kadri, Jonathan Huberdeau and Milan Lucic, Calgary Flames (anticipated targets, 6.8; precise targets, 11).
Jamie Benn, Ty Dellandrea and Wyatt Johnston, Dallas Stars (anticipated targets, 10.6; precise targets, 20).
Mark Scheifele, Cole Perfetti and Blake Wheeler, Winnipeg Jets (anticipated targets, 11.1; precise targets, 15).
Roope Hintz, Joe Pavelski and Jason Robertson, Dallas Stars (anticipated targets, 24; precise targets, 32).
Tim Stutzle, Claude Giroux and Brady Tkachuk, Ottawa Senators (anticipated targets, 17.9; precise targets, 12): I did not embrace this trio as a result of when the Sens are wholesome, this is not a line. However with Josh Norris again down for the remainder of the marketing campaign, we’d see these three collectively once more. This mixture wasn’t precisely in place earlier than Norris’ transient return, nevertheless it’s been the Senators’ most profitable line this season — and that is even supposing they’ve had dangerous luck with anticipated targets. This re-injury to Norris is de facto unlucky as a result of his presence appears to be the important thing to the Sens having two good traces as an alternative of only one. The return of this line does decide Giroux’s destiny in fantasy, as a result of he doesn’t produce on a unit with Shane Pinto and Alex DeBrincat – actually, as a result of that trio has zero targets this season however allowed seven in simply 58 minutes (worst line within the NHL not by the Chicago Blackhawks for targets towards every 60).
Chris Kreider, Mika Zibanejad and Kaapo Kakko, New York Rangers (anticipated targets, 13.7; precise targets, 9): This line comes and goes, however was collectively earlier than the Rangers sport on Monday when the staff pushed the “all-around” model of its depth chart (Kreider, Zibanejad and Artemi Panarin). like the road above). Whereas Kakko, general, is fairly near his particular person anticipated targets general (10.8 anticipated; 9 precise), I’m wondering if he owes a few of this line mixture and earned a bit additional from his different widespread line mixture. When Kakko is with Alexis Lafreniere and Filip Chytil, the trio is a part of the “fortunate traces” crew, with 6.4 anticipated targets and 11 precise targets this season. We might not be pleased with the ultimate consequence this fantasy season, however I believe Kakko (and Lafreniere) have shiny fantasy futures.
Trevor Moore, Phillip Danault and Viktor Arvidsson, Los Angeles Kings (anticipated targets, 15.8; precise targets, 9): Moore is not anticipated again till after subsequent week’s all-star break, which implies we can’t see this line once more till February eleventh. Moore has not performed since December twenty third. , however that line was locked in for the Kings as a unit till then. In his absence, Alex Iafallo has held down the fort and that trio has 5.9 anticipated targets and 6 precise targets, so mainly proper on the cash. Danault and Arvidsson each teeter on the sting of being lineup locks for fantasy, however do not assist themselves with stretches just like the previous six video games. The road with Moore has a barely higher anticipated targets per 60 fee than the road with Iafallo, so it is going to be fascinating to see how the Kings deal with Moore’s return. And, anyway, we simply need a contact extra consistency out of Danault and Arvidsson so we are able to put them on the fantasy roster and depart them there.
Different troublesome trios:
Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand and Jake DeBrusk, Boston Bruins (anticipated targets, 13.4; precise targets, 9):
Paul Stastny, Martin Necas and Andrei Svechnikov, Carolina Hurricanes (anticipated targets, 15.3; precise targets, 11).
William Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault and Reilly Smith, Vegas Golden Knights (anticipated targets, 18.3; precise targets, 13).
Mikael Backlund, Andrew Mangiapane and Blake Coleman, Calgary Flames (anticipated targets, 13.2; precise targets, 8).